In This Week’s Brief |
||||
|
||||
Market Notes |
||||
Unpacking First Quarter GDP NumbersAdvance first quarter GDP figures released last week estimated that economic activity fell at an annualized rate of 4.8%, which would mark the first decrease since early 2014 and the largest since the Global Financial Crisis. The number should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as it is based on incomplete source data, and final GDP numbers are revised by an average of 0.6 percentage points. However, these are not typical times, and we should expect some potential for wider revisions.
|
||||
Multifamily Construction Activity in Bridge MarketsMarkets projected to receive the highest levels of new supply benefit from inherent structural advantages that are likely to provide lift to multifamily demand. Charlotte, Nashville, Raleigh, and Salt Lake City benefit from ‘brain gain’ because of demonstrated abilities to attract well-educated workers, while Oakland/East Bay is likely to remain appealing for its relative affordability compared to other parts of the Bay Area.
2020-2021 Projected Deliveries as a Share of Inventory & Current Vacancy Rate by Market ![]() |
||||
Projected Rapid Growth in Seniors Population Underscores Growing Need for Seniors HousingWhile pre-COVID-19 projections are likely to shift, Esri Demographics offers some insight over what we might expect in terms of growth and migration during the next five years. With the oldest Baby Boomers turning 74 this year, the 65+ population is projected to become the fastest growing age cohort in the U.S., and seniors’ growing presence will be pronounced in various markets across the country.
Regions Projected to Add 100,000 or More Seniors (65+) in the Next Five Years: ![]() |
||||
Forbearance Numbers for Residential Mortgages Continue to ClimbData compiled from the Mortgage Bankers Association Forbearance and Call Volume Survey shows that the total number of loans in forbearance jumped by a full percentage point compared to a week prior and now stand at 7.54% of portfolio volume, up from a pre-COVID figure of 0.25%. Mortgages backed by Ginnie Mae have undergone the largest increase since early March with more than one in every ten loans now in forbearance, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans have experienced comparatively less disruption with 5.85% of loans currently in forbearance.Loans in Forbearance as a Share of Servicing Portfolio ![]() |
||||
July 31st a Potential Inflection Point for Unemployed WorkersThe end of July could represent a turning point for Bridge residents who have lost their jobs because of the pandemic and resultant business closures. Provisions in the CARES Act significantly expanded unemployment benefits by $600 a week, a 220% to 360% increase over baseline assistance levels depending on the state as well as a lifeline for many households. The additional support, however, will expire on July 31st if no extension is passed by Congress, and many residents who are currently managing collecting unemployment will find it more difficult to cover expenses and may seek more flexibility in rent payments.Estimated Average Hourly Wage Below Which Unemployment Benefits Exceed Job Income ![]() |
||||
The Weekly Briefing - May 4th, 2020
The Weekly Briefing – May 4th, 2020
Insights from the Bridge Research team.